De oppositie had meer tijd nodig om te reageren op dit totaal onverwachte kabinetsbesluit. Pas de volgende dag reageerden zowel het Oppositieblok als de Moederlandpartij van Joelia Timosjenko met een doorzichtige poging de eer voor zichzelf op te eisen. Beide oppositiepartijen lieten namelijk weten dat het besluit het gevolg is van hun eigen pogingen om het kabinet zover te krijgen.
Kritiek was er ook. Bijvoorbeeld van de ondervoorzitter van de Stategic Advisers Group. Leszek Balcerowicz noemde het ''een onaangename verrassing''. Hij vindt dat alleen economische groei een einde kan maken aan de armoede in het land, niet een door het kabinet opgelegde maatregel als het verdubbelen van het minimumloon.
''Er zijn duizenden wetten en regels die het minimumloon als maatstaf gebruiken. Aan een maatregel als deze hoort een uitgebreide analyse van de gevolgen vooraf gaan'', meent Halina Melnik van het advocatenkantoor Iljashev en Partners.
Het is vooral de vraag hoe het bedrijfsleven er straks mee om gaat. Het is geen geheim dat de reactie van de ondernemers op een grotere lastendruk is om die uit de weg te gaan. Dat kan zijn door werknemers parttime in dienst te nemen of door ze te ontslaan en op contractbasis terug te nemen.
Ook kan het gebeuren dat werkgevers hun personeel domweg niet uitbetalen, niet ongebruikelijk in Oekraïne.
Nu al zijn er uitbetalingsachterstanden die zelfs afgelopen maand met 4 procent zijn gestegen ten opzichte van augustus. Op 1 oktober was het totaal aan loontegoeden volgens het Nationaal Statistisch Bureau bijna 2 miljard hrivna (72 miljoen euro).
Bron: Unian
Week’s balance:
surprise from Groysman, Gontareva’s counterattack, and threat to GTS
The Ukrainian Cabinet came up with a surprise to certain politicians by
proposing to double the minimum wage, confrontation between the MPs and
Governor of the National Bank Valeria Gontareva is growing, while
Ukraine will lose millions of dollars if the European Commission allows
Gazprom to pump more gas bypassing the Ukrainian gas transportation
system.
Автор:
Oleksandra Danko
Economy
12:30, 29 October 2016
97
READ LATER
Photo from UNIAN
Photo from UNIAN
Top economic news this week is the Cabinet’s initiative to double the
minimum wage in 2017, making it UAH 3,200 per month. "The minimum wage
cannot be lower than UAH 3,200. The living wage and the minimum wage
will be the same, for the first time in 25 years. People have always
lived below the required level,” said Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman
Wednesday, to everyone’s apparent surprise.
"No one in Ukraine will not make less than UAH 3,200 [per month]. And
it's not only about the private sector, but the public sector as well,"
he added.
Meanwhile, Groysman hastened to assure that the decision to raise the
minimum wage goes in line with the real possibilities of the economy and
instructed Minister of Finance Oleksandr Danyliuk to calculate
everything.
"Due to de-shadowing of salaries, due to the fact that we will begin to
pay fair wages, the budget will be balanced. The deficit will not exceed
3% of GDP. We will see no problems. I confirm and I emphasize:
everything corresponds to our overall balance," the press service of the
Cabinet quoted Groysman as saying.
The Ministry of Finance has estimated that the increase of salaries will
require an additional UAH 28 billion.
However, this increase for the government is not just about additional
expenditures, it is also about a sharp boost in tax revenues. This is
primarily a single social contribution, a personal income tax, VAT, and
excise duties. Minister for Social Policy Andriy Reva said additional
revenues on the SSC are expected at UAH 18 billion and another UAH 9
billion – on the income tax.
In fact, the state will almost immediately return to the coffers almost
half of the funds allocated for salaries, at the same time being able to
report on improving the living standards of workers.
President Petro Poroshenko expressed full support for the government's
plans, making it clear that everything had been agreed with him.
But as for the other politicians who planned to exploit the fact of the
people’s impoverishment in order to destabilize the situation in the
country, this unexpected move of the government caught them off their
guard. It took 24 hours for the Opposition Bloc and Yulia Tymoshenko’s
Batkivshchyna to come to their senses. And there came flowing the
statements that the wage increase was in fact due to their efforts and
pressure on the government.
Unpleasant surprise
REUTERS
REUTERS
In fairness, it must be said that not everyone supports the government's
plans to double the minimum wage. In particular, co-chairman of the
Strategic Advisers Group Leszek Balcerowicz said that the move was an
“unpleasant surprise” for him. Moreover, the strategic adviser said that
neither he nor the international organizations knew about the Cabinet’s
plans, adding that poverty shall be overcome by economic growth and in
no way by a trivial wage increase.
"There are several thousand laws and regulations that use minimum wage
as a kind of a measure. The increase in the absolute size of the minimum
wage should be preceded by a detailed analysis of whether or not the
new size of the minimum wage will allow the requirements of this
legislation to remain justified and feasible," said Halyna Melnik from
Ilyashev and Partners law firm.
But the biggest mystery is how the businesses will react to the
government's initiatives. It is no secret that the entrepreneurs have a
standard response to any increase of the fiscal burden – they go into
the shadows. There are many ways to do so - part-time employment in
order to reduce the costs of the official salary, a complete refusal
from the official registration of employees, a formal switch from
employment relations to contracts with physical persons-entrepreneurs,
etc.
Not to mention the fact that the banal problem of non-payment of
salaries has not gone anywhere. By the way, arrears of wages in Ukraine
in September 2016 increased by 4% compared to August, according to the
State Statistics Service, amounting to almost UAH 2 billion as of
October 1.
Deterioration of forecast of economic growth
REUTERS
REUTERS
As we can see, the Cabinet is counting on economic growth next year that
will allow the government to draw resources to improve social
standards. However, this might not be easy to reach, as evidenced by the
forecasts of the National Bank. The thing is that the NBU has worsened
the forecast for GDP growth in 2017 from 3% projected earlier to 2.5%.
And that is all because of the deteriorating external environment for
Ukrainian exporters. Although the National Bank vows to continue to hold
the inflation down.
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/economics/1596842-weeks-balance-surprise-from-groysman-gontarevas-counterattack-and-threat-to-gts.html
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/economics/1596842-weeks-balance-surprise-from-groysman-gontarevas-counterattack-and-threat-to-gts.html
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